Ernie.SG 
Microdramas: The Sinking Market That Will Lift All Boats
What does my mum, a Hainanese native who had learned to speak Mandarin to work in Singapore, and a Grab driver in Malaysia have in common and what implications does this have for the global economy? I was struck by the universal appeal of short-form content, specifically videos, when I heard a familiar tune playing from one of the multiple handphones mounted by the driver I was with - both him and my mum consumed this short video about a girl with disabilities winning prize money. That made me realise that short form videos are truly accessible as they do not require aesthetics, literacy or time for enjoyment.
That short video, the immense popularity of microdramas like “Flash Marriage: My Old Spouse is a Tycoon” (闪婚老伴是豪门) (which I remembered because I could not help but find my eyes drawn to it on some strangers’ screens) which saw 400 million views, are snapshots of a broader phenomenon. In this post, I’ll dive into how microdramas exploded in popularity, especially among aging and lower-tier markets (also called “Sinking Markets” or 下沉市场), and why founders and investors should take note.
From jaw-dropping growth beating the Chinese box office to lightning-fast production cycles and formulaic plots powered by audience wish-fulfillment, microdramas are rewriting the rules of content creation. And in a world facing economic slowdowns, aging populations, and tech disruption, these seemingly lowbrow “snackable” dramas might just point to the next big opportunity in entertainment.
From Niche to National Phenomenon Surpassing the Box Office
In China, microdramas (微短剧) — brief, serialized dramas typically lasting minutes per episode—are booming. By mid-2024, China’s microdrama user base reached 576 million, which is over half of all internet users in the country. That means more people watch microdramas than order food, hail cars, or read online. The market size is projected to reach ¥50.44 billion RMB (approximately US$7 billion) in 2024, surpassing even China’s national box office revenues (Tencent News). Overall, the Chinese microdrama market saw a tenfold increase between 2021 and 2023, and is expected to reach $14bn by 2027 (The Economist).
While microdramas became a billion-dollar industry in China during the pandemic, they seem set to stay with renewed success beyond COVID and on the world stage. Microdramas struck gold by tapping into an underserved audience and delivering content in a radically different way. To understand that, let’s look at what are they watching and who is watching these mini-shows.
Why Viewers Crave Microdramas
Most microdramas can be summarised in a sentence, featuring plot that is as predictable as it gets, with dialogue lines recommended to be 10 words or less (CBNData). “Flash Marriage” is one such example: a widowed rural grandmother in her 60s hastily marries an older man who, unbeknownst to her, is a wealthy corporate chairman. When her new husband’s family disrespects her (the “country bumpkin” wife), the old tycoon fiercely defends her, putting snobby relatives in their place. It’s a basic “Cinderella” setup, but with senior citizens – a twist that struck gold. Within just two weeks of release, it became the market’s top performer with over 500 million views and 2.5 billion discussion mentions on Douyin.
For the millions of middle-aged and older viewers glued to these mini-dramas, it’s not really about polished production – it’s about how the stories make them feel. Microdramas nail a crucial “job to be done”: they offer escapism, emotional release, and even a form of validation for audiences who rarely see their lives or fantasies depicted in mainstream media. The content might be melodramatic, but it speaks to real desires and pain points (Beijing Daily).
Even when the scenarios are younger, the appeal often lies in catharsis and empowerment. Many microdrama plots are essentially revenge or comeback fantasies. A common formula: the protagonist suffers humiliation or injustice (from a cruel boss, unfilial children, gold-digging second wife, you name it), then dramatically turns the tables – sometimes through hard work and grit, other times via deus ex machina (oh, surprise, they were the secret heir to a fortune all along!). For viewers who feel marginalized or frustrated in real life, these stories are deeply satisfying.
It’s especially perfect for dreamers like us, the male characters always have billions in assets, or the female lead makes an incredible comeback after being treated badly and _turns things around in the end. (ketr.org).
That sentiment captures it perfectly – microdramas are delivering hope and justice on demand which may just be the quick dopamine release people need in times like these.
Who’s Tuning In? A Barbell Distribution of Young and Old Alike
The audience base for microdramas defies typical digital media expectations: over 54% of viewers are female, but the age distribution tells an even more interesting story. Viewers aged 15-34 (Gen Z and Millennials) comprise over 37%, while those aged 50+ represent more than 32% of the audience (CSM Media Research (中国广视索福瑞媒介研究)). This barbell-shaped demographic profile - capturing both digital natives and older viewers typically excluded from tech trends - represents a remarkable achievement in today’s fragmented media landscape. Microdramas have done what few other digital platforms have managed: bridge the generational divide.
A Growing Global Phenomenon
What began as pandemic-era escapism in China has rapidly transformed into a global entertainment juggernaut now worth approximately $2 billion annually and expected to double by 2025 (Variety). The format is finding remarkable success in the United States and beyond, with ReelShort’s rise to the top of the Apple App Store at one point resulted in it being hailed as the latest Chinese export to conquer America (The Economist).
A husband forcing his wife to donate blood to keep his lover alive. A human falling in love with a werewolf in disguise (NPR)…
These are but some of the soap on steroids that are quickly finding their way to Western audiences. The explosive growth of short drama apps saw platforms like ReelShort and DramaBox generating $146 million in global revenue in early 2024, a staggering 8,000% increase from just $1.8 million in Q1 2023 (TechCrunch). This rapid international expansion suggests that the microdrama format has tapped into something fundamental about how modern audiences - regardless of cultural background - want to consume entertainment.
How to Address the TAM of Microdramas with AI
How do you feed the content demands of billions of eyeballs with short attention spans? The answer is a radically different production model from traditional TV dramas or films. A typical microdrama series might be shot in just 7-10 days, with a total production cycle (from writing to final cut) of only 2–3 weeks. Budgets are astoundingly low – often in the range of ¥300,000 -¥500,000 RMB per series (roughly US$40k–$70k) (nrta.gov.cn). Elsewhere in Indonesia, companies like KaryaKarsa cap production costs at around US$24,000 per series. For context, a single episode of a prime-time TV soap is more expensive to make than an entire microdrama series.
Microdramas thrive because they are fast, formulaic, and inexpensive - ideal conditions for tech-driven disruption. The formula is so predictable it can be written as pseudocode:
def generate_microdrama(genre):
# Core template structure shared across all microdrama types
template = {
"protagonist": {},
"plot_beats": [],
"monetization_hooks": {},
"emotional_payoffs": [],
"title_formula": ""
}
# Fill in template based on genre
if genre == "war_god":
template["protagonist"] = {
"core": "secretly_powerful_male",
"variable": random.choice(["ex_prisoner", "bodyguard", "delivery_guy", "doctor"])
}
template["plot_beats"] = [
"protagonist_appears_ordinary",
"protagonist_faces_disrespect",
"minor_skill_reveal",
"identity_hints_at_paywall",
"full_identity_reveal",
"enemies_defeated_one_by_one"
]
template["monetization_hooks"] = {
"episode_10": "first_identity_hint",
"episode_30": "female_lead_in_danger",
"episode_60": "protagonist_seemingly_defeated"
}
template["emotional_payoffs"] = ["face_slapping", "status_reversal", "power_fantasy"]
template["title_formula"] = "The {adjective} {powerful_noun}"
elif genre == "revenge":
template["protagonist"] = {
"core": "wronged_person_seeking_vengeance",
"variable": random.choice(["betrayed_heiress", "framed_employee", "abandoned_wife"])
}
template["plot_beats"] = [
"happy_life_flashback",
"betrayal_and_suffering",
"transformation_and_return",
"infiltration_of_enemy_circle",
"strategic_revenge_sequence",
"enemies_destroyed"
]
template["monetization_hooks"] = {
"episode_10": "first_revenge_act",
"episode_30": "identity_almost_exposed",
"episode_60": "protagonist_temporarily_cornered"
}
template["emotional_payoffs"] = ["justice_served", "vindication", "schadenfreude"]
template["title_formula"] = "{revenge_adjective} {protagonist_type}"
elif genre == "toxic_romance":
template["protagonist"] = {
"core": "ordinary_woman",
"variable": random.choice(["office_worker", "poor_student", "struggling_artist"])
}
template["plot_beats"] = [
"meet_domineering_male_lead",
"forced_proximity_situation",
"emotional_breakthrough_at_paywall",
"separation_due_to_misunderstanding",
"grand_gesture_reconciliation"
]
template["monetization_hooks"] = {
"episode_10": "first_kiss_or_near_miss",
"episode_30": "confession_interrupted",
"episode_60": "relationship_crisis"
}
template["emotional_payoffs"] = ["heart_flutter", "protective_gesture", "emotional_validation"]
template["title_formula"] = "{adjective} {powerful_male}'s {relationship_noun}"
# Apply superficial variations while keeping formula intact
variations = {
"setting": random.choice(["modern_urban", "historical", "fantasy_world", "corporate"]),
"conflict": random.choice(["family_feud", "business_rivalry", "class_difference", "hidden_conspiracy"]),
"obstacle": random.choice(["evil_relative", "business_competitor", "jealous_ex", "misunderstanding"])
}
# Merge template with variations to create final product
return {**template, "variations": variations}The templated nature of microdramas is evident when you compare popular series that are essentially the same story with superficial variations. For example, in the War God (战神) genre, both “Dragon King Out of Prison” (《龙王出狱》) and “The Unrivaled Supreme” (《无上至尊》) follow nearly identical plot structures: a powerful man hiding his abilities faces disrespect, gradually reveals his powers at strategic points (conveniently placed at episodes 10, 30, and 60 - right where payment is required), and systematically crushes his enemies. Only the surface details change - one protagonist was framed and imprisoned while the other is a scorned son-in-law, but the emotional beats and payoffs remain identical.
The same-same-but-different nature of these stories and their cross-cultural appeal is tapping into something truly universal, as noted by a hit microdrama scriptwriter whose fees have doubled from 100,000 to 200,000 RMB per script in response to the booming market:
Men fantasize about becoming invincible ‘dragon-like’ heroes or cunning playboys like Wei Xiaobao; women dream of being exclusively cherished by powerful tycoons. These classic formulas effortlessly deliver emotional payoffs that viewers crave: entertainment, empathy, catharsis, accomplishment, healing, curiosity, and nostalgia (男人都想变成龙傲天、韦小宝，女人都爱幻想霸总独宠我。经典套路可以轻松提供用户需要的娱乐、共情、宣泄、成就感、治愈、猎奇、怀旧等情绪价值。). - Cao Feng (The Paper).
Like any factory production, challenges persist in becoming as cost-efficient as possible to meet rapidly growing demand.
Script development takes the longest, followed by location scouting and casting. These are things you can’t rush. - Tamat, CEO of KaryaKarsa (Tech in Asia).
Why Now is the Right time
Thankfully for the entrepreneur - the templated nature of microdramas make it a prime candidate for automation, especially with new capabilities only recently unlocked in 2025:
-
Generative AI, Story and Image Consistency: GPT-4o’s advanced image generation capabilities have demonstrated remarkable consistency, enabling scalable and realistic visual content for concept guidance (The Verge). Did I mention that reasoning models are especially adept at managing multiple constraints and maintaining long-form consistency, making them ideal for automated scriptwriting?
-
Video Generation: Models like Alibaba’s open-source Wan enable rapid, AI-driven video generation, significantly shortening production timelines and costs (Alibaba Cloud). As these models continue to improve, the cost for scene production and props will be reduced to the cost of compute.
-
Emotive Voice Tech: Advancements in realistic, emotionally nuanced synthetic voices further close the production loop, allowing unfettered experimentation with dramatic pauses and emotional variations at the change of a parameter (Sesame).
It is no surprise then that companies like Douyin and Kuaishou have already debuted microdramas created with AI at every step in 2024 (Sixth Tone). While these technologies remain imperfect, the trajectory of AI development teaches us one crucial lesson: build for the future, not the present.
The Next Act: Why This Matters for Founders and Investors
“Sinking markets” are lifting the tide on the global economy. Here’s why founders and investors should pay close attention:
Unlocking the “Sinking Market” Potential
The microdrama phenomenon reveals a massive opportunity hiding in plain sight. By targeting demographics often overlooked by mainstream entertainment, these platforms have accessed billions in untapped consumer spending. This approach offers valuable lessons for entrepreneurs across industries:
- Targeting the Long Tail: Microdramas have proven that innovation comes from addressing underserved audiences - specifically older and lower-tier consumers seeking emotional fulfillment.
- Alternative Growth Strategy: Success in “sinking markets” demonstrates you don’t need to compete with Netflix by creating the next Game of Thrones.
- “Sinking Markets” as The Next Blue Ocean: This strategy is driving innovation in sectors ranging from e-commerce to mobile games (Quartz), indicating that substantial profits can be realized by catering to the billions of new internet users that are just coming online.
Why Microdramas and AI are a Perfect Match
In reasoning through how the convergence of microdrama formats with advancing AI capabilities creates a perfect storm of opportunity, it can be broadly beneficial to consider where else might such a playbook unravel as well. As discussed in this post, the inherent characteristics of microdramas make them uniquely suited for AI-powered production at scale:
- Formulaic Simplicity: Short episodes, predictable plots, and repetitive emotional hooks make microdramas ideal for AI automation.
- Cost Efficiency: AI significantly reduces traditional production costs, making entertainment affordable and scalable for billions of viewers.
- Rapid Iteration: AI accelerates content production, enabling rapid responses to audience preferences and market demands.
- Global Scaling Opportunity: The model travels well across cultures—from “micro-telenovelas” in Latin America to Bollywood-style microdramas in South Asia. The export potential is already being realized with platforms in Singapore and Malaysia licensing Chinese content (South China Morning Post).
The wise approach is not to wait for perfection, but to position strategically for the capabilities that will inevitably arrive. Those who project forward — even conservatively — and design their production pipelines around forthcoming technological advancements will capture extraordinary advantages in efficiency, scale, and creative flexibility. What other industries do you think are ripe for automation to usher in the next era of AI-native unicorns? Let me know!
Conclusion: Scaling Happiness in a Shifting Economy
In a world facing aging populations and economic uncertainties, microdramas deliver accessible comfort and emotional lifts at minimal cost. Small screens can create big opportunities. For founders and investors paying attention, the stage is set to deliver happiness at unprecedented scale and efficiency. The revolution may just be getting started, and you don’t want to miss this episode.
Notes: I spent about 4 hours to go from prompting ChatGPT and Claude to finalising the content for this post, about 3 hours for the cover image generation and another 3 for refinement.
TODOS: Data viz, comparison table and a counterargument.